A widely cited McKinsey survey found that 46% of US EV owners said they were likely to buy a gas-powered car next time, a number that has been rounded up to “50%” in dozens of headlines since. It’s a real finding, not a fabrication. But it measures intent expressed in a survey, not what people actually do when it’s time to trade in the car. Separate ownership studies — including one from JD Power and another from the Global EV Alliance — put actual switch-back behavior closer to 1–4%. Both numbers are accurate. They’re just measuring different things: stated preference under hypothetical conditions versus what owners do once they’re back in a dealership. Below, we break down where the “50%” figure came from, why the real switch-back rate is so much lower, and the handful of owners for whom going back to gas genuinely makes sense.
Quick Summary
| Takeaway | Detail |
|---|---|
| Source of the “50%” claim | McKinsey’s 2024 Mobility Consumer Pulse survey: 46% of US EV owners said they were “likely” to buy gas next, based on ~4,000 US respondents out of a 30,000-person global sample |
| Global rate is much lower | Worldwide, McKinsey found only 29% of EV owners leaning back toward gas, with wide country variation |
| Actual behavior looks different | A Global EV Alliance study of 23,000 owners across 18 countries found just 1% would choose gas if replacing their EV today |
| Top complaints driving hesitation | Charging access, total cost of ownership surprises, and long-distance trip friction |
| Top reasons owners stay | Low running costs, home charging convenience, and driving experience |
Where the “50%” Number Actually Comes From
The statistic traces back to McKinsey & Company’s Mobility Consumer Pulse survey, which polled around 30,000 people across 15 countries in early 2024. Among the roughly 4,000 US respondents who already owned an EV, 46% said they were “likely” or “very likely” to buy a gasoline or diesel vehicle the next time they shopped for a car. That’s a real and significant number — but two things get lost when it’s flattened into a viral headline.
First, it’s a stated intention, not a completed purchase. Surveys capture what people say they’d do under a hypothetical, and hypothetical answers are known to diverge from real-world choices, especially for a purchase that’s often years away.
Second, the US number is an outlier, not the global norm. McKinsey’s own data put the worldwide average at 29% of EV owners leaning toward switching back, with enormous variation by country. Japan sat near 13%, Italy around 15%, France and Norway near 18%, Germany at 24%, and the US and Australia at the high end near 38–46%. In other words, “half of EV owners want out” is really a US-specific and UK-specific reading of one survey, not a global consensus.
Why the US Number Runs So High
A few country-specific factors show up repeatedly in the commentary around this data:
- Charging infrastructure gaps. The US has far less public charging density per EV than markets like Norway or the Netherlands, and reliability of existing chargers is inconsistent.
- Sticker shock on total cost of ownership. Insurance premiums, depreciation, and home-charger installation costs are less visible at the point of sale than at the pump, and some buyers feel misled after the fact.
- Long-distance trip friction. Route planning around charging stops remains a bigger mental load in the US than in more charging-dense European markets.
- First-generation EV experience. A meaningful share of the disillusioned group bought early, lower-range EVs and are comparing that experience to today’s much-improved models — a comparison that isn’t quite fair to the current generation of cars.
What Owners Actually Do When It’s Time to Trade In
Stated intent and real-world behavior diverge sharply once the actual purchase decision arrives. A Global EV Alliance survey of roughly 23,000 EV owners across 18 countries, fielded in late 2024, found that only 1% said they’d choose a gasoline or diesel car if replacing their EV today, with another 4% open to a plug-in hybrid. Ninety-two percent said their next car would be another EV.
A more recent JD Power ownership study covering 2025–2026 model-year EVs and PHEVs found comparable results: 96% of owners said they’d consider another EV as their next vehicle, even without the now-expired US federal tax credit factored in. JD Power attributed the shift to concrete improvements in battery technology, charging network reliability, and overall vehicle quality compared with earlier EV generations. These figures reflect owners of relatively recent model years and may not represent owners of older, higher-mileage EVs, whose experience with early battery degradation or first-generation charging networks could skew results differently.
Why the Gap Between “Considering” and “Doing” Is So Wide
Three dynamics explain most of the difference between the 46% “considering” figure and the roughly 1–8% who actually follow through:
- Running-cost math wins once owners see their own numbers. Home charging is typically cheaper per mile than gasoline in most markets, and owners who’ve tracked a full year of costs tend to notice this even if they were frustrated by a single bad road trip.
- Complaints cluster around specific pain points, not the technology itself. Charging access and trip planning are solvable network problems, not flaws in the vehicles, so owners who upgrade their home charging setup or move to a market with better public infrastructure often change their answer.
- Survey timing matters. Consumer Pulse-style surveys are often fielded shortly after a frustrating experience (a failed road trip, a public charger outage), which skews responses toward frustration rather than long-run satisfaction.
Who Genuinely Should Consider Switching Back
Not every EV owner’s hesitation is unfounded. A smaller group has legitimate reasons to reconsider:
- No reliable home or workplace charging access, particularly renters and apartment dwellers in markets with sparse public charging.
- High-mileage, frequent long-distance drivers in regions where fast-charging networks remain thin.
- Owners of early, short-range EVs nearing battery replacement age, where the economics of a new battery pack versus a gas trade-in are genuinely close.
- Cold-climate owners without home charging, where winter range loss compounds an already inconvenient charging routine.
For everyone outside these groups, the data suggests the “50%” headline overstates the real-world churn back to gasoline.
Switching Back vs. Staying Electric: Side-by-Side
| Factor | Case for switching back to gas | Case for staying electric |
|---|---|---|
| Running cost | Predictable at the pump, but higher per-mile in most markets | Lower cost per mile with home charging; savings compound over ownership |
| Charging access | No dependency on charging infrastructure | Requires reliable home or workplace charging for best experience |
| Long-distance trips | No route planning required | Improved fast-charging networks have narrowed the gap since 2023–2024 |
| Total cost of ownership | Familiar insurance and maintenance costs | Historically higher insurance in some markets; lower routine maintenance |
| Owner satisfaction (recent studies) | Roughly 1–4% of current EV owners would choose gas next | 92–96% of current owners in recent studies say they’d choose EV again |
| Best fit | Renters without charging access, high-mileage long-distance drivers, cold climates without home charging | Owners with home or workplace charging, typical daily commuting patterns |
Bottom Line
The “50% of EV owners want to switch back” headline is real but incomplete: it reflects one US-weighted survey measuring stated intent, not actual purchase behavior. Every study that has tracked what EV owners do at trade-in time — rather than what they say in a hypothetical — puts the real switch-back rate in the low single digits. Unless someone falls into one of the specific groups without reliable charging access, the data points toward staying electric, not away from it.
